The oil market's oversupply narrative is cracking under the weight of stronger-than-expected demand, forcing analysts to repeatedly revise their forecasts downward—a rare bit of good news for an industry that has spent the past year battling persistent glut concerns.
According to OilPrice.com, almost 100% of oil market analysts see the market as oversupplied this year, just as it was in 2025. But here's where the story gets interesting: the International Energy Agency, which led predictions of a massive supply overhang measured in millions of barrels, has had to revise its forecast—again. The reason? Demand turned out to be stronger than expected. In its latest Oil Market Report released earlier this week, the IEA forecast global oil demand higher than previously anticipated, suggesting that the size of the supply overhang may be considerably smaller than initially predicted.
This demand resilience matters because it could provide some relief to crude prices that have been pressured by oversupply concerns. While the market remains fundamentally long on crude, the gap between supply and demand appears to be narrowing faster than many expected.
LNG Markets Face a Different Problem: Too Much Supply
While crude oil demand surprises to the upside, the liquefied natural gas market is bracing for the opposite problem. According to OilPrice.com, as several countries invest in expanding their LNG production and export capacity, significant quantities of gas are expected to come online in 2026 following a record 2025. The concern is straightforward: supply could soon outpace demand.
Last year was a record year for LNG trade, with exports exceeding quantities predicted in several industry forecasts. Now, with major expansions coming online, the industry faces a critical question: just how much LNG is needed to "fill the gap" as the world develops its renewable energy capacity? This supply surge could put downward pressure on LNG prices globally, reshaping the economics of liquefaction projects and export contracts that were signed when the market was tighter.
North Sea Decline Continues Despite Political Rhetoric
Meanwhile, the UK's aging North Sea oil and gas sector continues its prolonged decline, a reality that stands in sharp contrast to recent political claims about the basin's potential. According to OilPrice.com, U.S. President Donald Trump recently claimed that the UK has 500 years of oil reserves left in the North Sea and blamed the country's high energy prices on the government's unwillingness to drill.
However, the reality is less optimistic. The North Sea oil and gas sector has been in significant and prolonged decline due to the basin's aging oil fields, with production falling sharply since its peak in the early 2000s, according to the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), the UK's energy regulator. This structural decline in production capacity presents a fundamental challenge that increased drilling activity alone cannot easily overcome.
Wood Mackenzie has flagged another concern: a sharp pullback in UK North Sea capital expenditure is expected, which could further constrain production from the aging basin.
What's Next?
The divergence between crude oil and LNG markets highlights how energy commodities are moving in different directions. Crude demand resilience is tightening the oversupply picture, while LNG faces a potential glut from new production capacity coming online. For energy investors and traders, this means the commodity complex is unlikely to move in lockstep—selective positioning based on individual market fundamentals will be increasingly important.
Reporting based on coverage from OilPrice.com and the International Energy Agency.