Oil prices are sliding into what could be their first weekly decline in seven weeks, with crude retreating on multiple fronts as geopolitical tensions ease and market fundamentals shift. According to Reuters, oil extended its decline ahead of US-Iran talks, marking a significant reversal from the rally that had dominated recent trading.
The pullback reflects a confluence of factors reshaping market sentiment. According to OilPrice.com, the oil price rally "has finally run out of steam," with several catalysts working against crude simultaneously. The selection of Kevin Warsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair—expected to be more dovish than Jerome Powell—combined with "the notable ratcheting down of rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran" and Iran's revelation that it will hold talks with the United States, all pressured prices lower. Additionally, OilPrice.com noted that a "business-as-usual OPEC+ meeting and reduction in the U.S. tariff rates on India" contributed to the decline.
This softer price environment is forcing major oil producers to recalibrate their strategies. ConocoPhillips announced it targets $1 billion in cost cuts for 2026, according to Reuters, as the company reported that profit missed expectations on weaker oil prices. The announcement underscores how quickly the industry is adjusting to lower crude valuations after months of elevated prices.
Shell and BP Navigate Lower Prices With Shareholder Returns
Shell is taking a different approach to the price headwinds, prioritizing investor returns despite the challenging environment. According to Financial Times Energy, Shell's chief is "pushing for more cost cuts" while the oil major simultaneously plans to buy back $3.5 billion of shares and boost its dividend despite lower crude prices. The strategy reflects confidence that the company can maintain shareholder value even as crude faces downward pressure.
Meanwhile, BP is looking to expand its portfolio in the Middle East. According to Reuters, BP is seeking a partner at one of the Middle East's oldest oil fields, as reported by Bloomberg. The move suggests major producers are still willing to invest in long-term assets despite near-term price weakness.
Canada and Alberta Align on Asian Export Push
In a significant policy shift, Canada and Alberta have resolved years of tension over crude export infrastructure. According to OilPrice.com, "after years of antagonism between the federal government and Alberta over additional outlets for crude, Canada and the oil-producing province are finally on the same page regarding Canadian oil exports." The breakthrough came as a result of "a major geopolitical and trade shift from Canada's long-term ally and top trade partner, the United States."
Alberta is now planning a new crude oil pipeline to ship energy exports to Asia, according to OilPrice.com. The project is expected to boost Canadian oil exports to the world's largest energy-consuming region, potentially opening new markets for North American crude at a time when traditional outlets face uncertainty.
Coal Demand Questions Resurface
The broader hydrocarbon market is also showing signs of shifting demand patterns. According to OilPrice.com, Asian seaborne imports of coal "inched down by 4.4% in 2025, from an all-time high in the previous year," reigniting speculation about peak coal demand. However, the article notes this narrative is "likely premature," with data from Kpler showing that "Asian buyers imported a total of 1.09 billion metric tons of coal" in 2025—still a substantial volume despite the year-over-year decline.
The developments paint a picture of an energy industry in transition. Oil majors are tightening operations and cutting costs as crude prices moderate, while simultaneously pursuing long-term growth opportunities and shareholder returns. For investors and policymakers watching energy markets, the next few weeks will be critical as US-Iran diplomatic talks unfold and OPEC+ navigates its next moves in a market that appears to be rebalancing after months of supply concerns.
Reporting based on coverage from Reuters, Financial Times Energy, and OilPrice.com.