Oil prices are climbing fast, and Venezuela is the reason. According to OilPrice.com, oil prices continued to climb in early Asian trade on Friday morning after posting a sharp increase on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate trading around $58.27 per barrel, up by 0.85% or $0.49. On Thursday alone, both WTI and Brent climbed by over 3%, with Brent on the brink of breaking the $62 mark. As OilPrice.com reported, "Venezuela remained a major driver of the risk premium after the U.S. escalation."
The sudden focus on Venezuelan crude is reshaping the entire energy sector. Reuters reported that oil is rising "as concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela, Iran increase," signaling that geopolitical risk across multiple key producers and shipping routes is now pricing into every barrel traded globally.
What makes this moment particularly significant is the scramble for control. Reuters sources revealed that "Chevron, Vitol, Trafigura vie to control Venezuelan oil exports," indicating that major oil traders and energy companies are positioning themselves aggressively in anticipation of potential shifts in Venezuela's oil trade. Meanwhile, India's Reliance is also watching closely—Reuters reported that "India's Reliance would consider buying Venezuelan oil if allowed," suggesting that Asian refiners are preparing contingency plans if supply dynamics change.
The Tanker Market Offers Temporary Relief
While Venezuela dominates headlines, there's a silver lining emerging elsewhere in the crude market. According to OilPrice.com, "A dip in tanker rates has improved the price outlook for U.S. crude this month, as it signals stronger demand." An analyst from financial services provider TP ICAP told Bloomberg this week that "the shipping markets are freeing up, and rates are tanking from the US to Asia, and the UK to Asia," a trend that's boosting demand for U.S. crude oil.
However, OilPrice.com cautioned that this relief may be short-lived: "The relief may not last too long as most tanker market forecasts for the year still see rates much higher than they were in 2025." This suggests that while current shipping conditions are easing pressure on crude prices, the broader outlook remains constrained by elevated transportation costs.
Natural Gas Markets Retreat on Mild Weather
Away from the oil spotlight, natural gas markets are telling a different story. According to Natural Gas Intel, "Spot natural gas prices fell sharply Thursday as milder weather and pipeline constraints weighed on regional markets." The report noted that "Futures contracts tumbled Thursday, led by the prompt month, which sank after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report showed a natural gas withdrawal largely in line with market expectations."
The contrast between oil and gas markets reflects divergent supply pressures. While crude is being driven higher by geopolitical concerns, natural gas is being pulled lower by near-term weather patterns that reduce heating demand.
Looking Ahead: Production Challenges Loom
The energy market's focus on Venezuela also highlights longer-term supply concerns elsewhere. Reuters reported that "Norway's oil and gas output will fall towards 2030," according to the country's regulator, suggesting that traditional energy producers are facing structural headwinds even as new geopolitical flashpoints emerge.
These developments underscore a critical reality for energy markets: supply security remains fragile across multiple regions and commodities. Whether it's Venezuelan crude becoming a flashpoint for U.S. policy, Norwegian production declining, or natural gas facing regional constraints, the energy sector is navigating a complex landscape where geopolitical risk, weather patterns, and long-term production trends are all competing for attention.
For traders and energy companies, the message is clear—volatility is likely to persist as markets digest the implications of shifting Venezuelan dynamics while managing traditional supply and demand pressures elsewhere.
Reporting based on coverage from Reuters, OilPrice.com, Natural Gas Intel, Bloomberg, and TP ICAP.